BITCOIN SCORECARD provided by iBTCiBTC Bitcoin Scorecard — long-term band from VPLI, plus MVRV-Z, Mayer, 200w and ETF context.Open allocation settings: profile, alerts, risk, horizon, zone, max BTC weight.
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—Live BTC/USD spot (Coinbase, then Binance.US, then Kraken). Refreshes every second.2026-11-12 07:53:13 Europe/BerlinStamp in Europe/Berlin. Updates with the live spot print.
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Fair
Long-term band from VPLI.
Strong OS <20 · Oversold 20–33 · Fair 33–50 · Overbought 50–66 · Strong OB >66.
Today’s OLS fair ≈ $151k. 50 = at fair.Click to change risk profile, time horizon, and max BTC allocation.
Strong OS: VPLI < 20 (~< $76k vs OLS $151k). Historically the add zone if 200w holds.Oversold: VPLI 20–33 (~$76k–$103k). Bias add, size smaller than Strong OS.Fair: VPLI 33–50 (~$103k–$151k). Hold / flat. Not a force-add or force-reduce.Overbought: VPLI 50–66 (~$151k–$217k). Bias reduce / take profit.Strong OB: VPLI > 66 (~> $217k). Historically the reduce / distribution zone.
Strong OSStrong OS: VPLI < 20 (~< $76k vs OLS $151k). Historically the add zone if 200w holds.OversoldOversold: VPLI 20–33 (~$76k–$103k). Bias add, size smaller than Strong OS.FairFair: VPLI 33–50 (~$103k–$151k). Hold / flat. Not a force-add or force-reduce.OverboughtOverbought: VPLI 50–66 (~$151k–$217k). Bias reduce / take profit.Strong OBStrong OB: VPLI > 66 (~> $217k). Historically the reduce / distribution zone.
Long-term band from VPLI
Long-term band from VPLI.
Strong OS <20 · Oversold 20–33 · Fair 33–50 · Overbought 50–66 · Strong OB >66.
Today’s OLS fair ≈ $151k. 50 = at fair.
0 daysChart settings — timeframe, iBTC PL, Power Law, SMA, and projection years.
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DOWNSIDE
200d SMA—
200d SMA
200-day SMA. Mayer = price / this line.
200w SMA—
200w SMA
200-week SMA. Losing it is the scorecard’s reduce override.
Cycle low$58.5k
Cycle low
This-cycle printed low ($58,519 on 2026-06-30).
UPSIDE
Ceiling$83–86k
Ceiling
Near-term supply / bounce ceiling used on this card ($83–86k).
ATH$125k
ATH
Cycle all-time high $124,824 on 2025-10-06.
DD vs ATH—
DD vs ATH
Drawdown from ATH. This cycle’s deepest print was −53%.
MVRV-Z
—
MVRV-Z: (market cap − realized cap) / σ(market cap). Coinmetrics, updated intra-day with live spot.
Strong OS ≤ −0.6 · OS ≤ 0.3 · Neutral 0.3–2.1 · OB ≥ 2.1 · Strong OB ≥ 3.0.
Low = add. High = holders in profit / reduce.
MAYER
—
Mayer = live price / 200-day SMA. Updates with the spot tape.
Strong OS < 0.8× · OS < 1.0× · Neutral 1.0–1.6× · OB 1.6–2.2× · Strong OB > 2.2×.
VS 200W
—
Live price vs 200-week SMA, as ±XX%.
Strong OS < 0% (200w lost) · OS 0–30% · Neutral 30–100% · OB 100–200% · Strong OB > 200%.
Add only if 200w holds. Reduce if lost.
ETF 7D
+$321M
7-day US spot ETF net flow (last 7 trading sessions, Farside).
Updated at least daily.
Strong OS < −$500M · OS −$500M–0 · Neutral 0–+$500M · OB +$500M–$1.5B · Strong OB > $1.5B.
SCORECARD
Residual base. 200w and $58.5k hold. 3-day ETF bleed. Not generational — price is above the 200-week SMA.
Written stance from the 5-zone composite plus 200w and ETF context. Not advice.
Download every daily print since 18 Jul 2010 (price, SMAs, Mayer, Power Law, MVRV, ETF 1d/7d from Jan 2024).DocumentationHow the allocation model was derived (evidence, Power Law, Monte Carlo, constrained portfolio theory).Install the scorecard on your home screen (PWA). Chrome/Edge: Install App. iPhone: Share → Add to Home Screen.
Daily series from 18 Jul 2010. Power Law P = 10^(−16.493)·t^5.688, σ = 0.20 log10. Add if Composite ≤ −0.84 and 200w holds. Reduce if zone ≥ OB or 200w lost. Not advice.
Rules of the card: add if composite ≤ −0.84σ and 200w holds; reduce if zone ≥ OB or 200w lost.
